[RP TownTalk] U.S. Housing Bust!
Andrew Farrington
somefool at dvnt.com
Wed Mar 15 15:51:12 UTC 2006
I suggest you sell all of your properties, and rent until the sky has
fallen. Also, please send me $130 for more information. A $500 value!
Thanks. :)
Andrew Farrington
On Wed, 15 Mar 2006, Regina M. Kreger wrote:
> Jeez, Andrew. So what -- you think the way the housing market has
> behaved over the last few years is rational and sustainable?? I think
> Bruce is bringing up an extremely important point, and I share his
> doubts over the viability of the Dumms condo proposal. It is only one
> of several doubts I have about the proposal, but it's one of the most
> serious ones.
>
> Regina Kreger
> 5903 Cleveland Ave.
>
> Andrew Farrington wrote:
> Did you really just forward fear-mongering commercial email
> to the town talk list? "Be terrified! Give me $130 bucks
> or you'll DIE!! Booga booga!" Just curious: Did you send
> the guy $130?
>
> Andrew Farrington
>
> On Tue, 14 Mar 2006 bruce.wernek at mindspring.com wrote:
>
> All,
>
> This is a financial news letter I receive daily
> from Weiss Research. Since there is a proposal
> on the table for a "condominum" complex at
> Dumms Corner, I thought the following would be
> interesting reading. I
> fear this "condominum" complex will either be
> just another vacant
> property in our Town Center or an apartment
> building, most likely the
> later. I don't consider this economic
> development, but you can make
> your own decisions.
>
> Bruce
>
>
>
> To make sure you don't miss our urgent
> updates, add Weiss Research to
> your address book. Just follow
> these simple steps.
>
>
>
> Money and Markets Tuesday,
> March 14, 2006
>
>
>
> � U.S. Housing Bust
> by Michael Larson
> � Asian Tech Boom
> by Tony Sagami
>
>
> Dear Stanley
> Bruce,
>
>
> [larson.jpg] Tony Sagami�s so
> worried about what�s happening to U.S.
> tech stocks, he�s hopped on a plane
> and flown off to Asia. He�ll give
> you a sneak preview of his research
> tour in just a moment.
>
>
> But first, Martin has asked me to give you
> an urgent update on what�s
> happening in the U.S.
> housing market.
>
>
> If you�re like most of my friends and
> family, your home is your biggest
> and best investment. It�s worth more
> than any single stock or mutual
> fund in your portfolio � perhaps
> more than all your other investments
> combined. But right
> now ...
>
>
> Home Prices
> Are Falling!
>
>
> In Bethesda, Maryland, prices have
> tumbled 16% from December to
> January.
>
>
> In a key area of Fresno, California, the
> median sale price for homes
> was $439,000. But in just the last 60 days,
> those homes have plummeted
> $51,000, to
> $388,000.
>
>
> In San Diego, new home prices have just
> suffered the sharpest
> month-to-month dive ever
> recorded.
>
>
> [img1.jpg] In Palm Beach County, Florida,
> where we live, we see the
> same thing. Every day, when we drive to
> work, we see �house for sale�
> signs sprouting like unwanted weeds along
> the road. And every night, as
> we drive home, our eyes turn to a skyline
> sculpted by dozens of new
> high-rise condominiums, nearly all in
> darkness, nearly all unoccupied.
>
>
> And this is just a small sampling. I can
> give you a dozen more examples
> � from Sarasota ... Chicago ...
> Phoenix ... Washington D.C. and more
> that show this �adjustment�
> in prices could be sharp, severe and
> widespread.
>
>
> This Housing Bubble is
> Busting.
> And the Bust Could
> Spread from
> Coast to Coast Like a
> Giant Storm.
>
>
> It may have reached your area already. Or
> it may be on its way. In
> either case, my question for you today is:
> Are you planning to just
> ride it out? Or are you going to do
> something about it?
>
>
> Suppose your home falls 30% in value. What
> about 40% or 50%? Given how
> fast and far home values have surged,
> that would not be unusual.
>
>
> Heck, even if the price of your home falls
> by a �mild� 10%, that could
> be a huge hit to your net
> worth.
>
>
> Let�s say, for example, your home is
> worth $500,000, and you�ve got a
> $450,000 mortgage. Guess what: Just a 10%
> decline wipes out 100% of
> your equity. Even if you�ve got
> another $50,000 in the bank, that still
> means that half of your net worth
> has gone up in smoke.
>
>
> I�m writing you now because you
> don�t have to ride it out. You
> don�t
> have to sit there passively while a housing
> bust wipes out much or most
> of your net worth. Indeed, there�s a
> lot you can do to protect yourself
> � even to go after
> unusually large profits.
>
>
> And it does not require
> selling your home.
>
>
> The Biggest Glut
> of
> Unsold Homes of All
> Time
>
>
> All across the USA, brand new,
> single-family homes are begging for
> buyers.
>
>
> And empty condos are about as popular as
> lepers at a kissing contest.
>
>
> Here�s
> why ...
>
>
> 1. Home sales are
> dropping.
>
>
> The sales of existing homes are at their
> lowest level in nearly two
> years ... and sinking fast. That means if
> you want to try selling your
> home right now, it�s probably going
> to take a heck of a lot longer to
> move it. And more and more people are
> putting their homes up for sale.
>
>
> The same is happening in the new home
> market, where sales just plunged
> to a one-year low. But builders are
> committed to past contracts. So
> they�re still building record
> numbers of shiny new homes.
>
>
> As a result ...
>
>
> [img2.jpg] 2. The supply of homes on the
> market is ballooning out of
> control!
>
>
> The number of new homes for sale just hit
> 528,000 in January. That was
> the worst at any time in
> U.S. history.
>
>
> At the same time, in the used home market, a
> whopping 2.9 million units
> have flooded the market. That�s
> just shy of an 18-year high.
>
>
>
> 3. Condos are getting hit the
> hardest of all.
>
>
> Nationwide, condo and co-op sales have
> plunged 7.8% over the last 12
> months. And supplies surged by 49.5%! If
> you own a condo, good luck
> selling! And even if you don�t own
> one, the drop in condo prices will
> naturally put pressure on your properties
> as home buyers choose the
> cheaper
> alternatives.
>
>
> These warning signs would be troubling for
> any market. Yet the real
> estate lobby keeps whistling past
> the graveyard.
>
>
> Just yesterday, the National Association of
> Realtors published its 2006
> sales outlook, forecasting sales declines
> of almost 6% for existing
> homes and 8% for new homes, the biggest
> drops since the 1990s.
>
>
> But their headline is pure spin:
> �Housing Market Readjusting to Normal
> Balance.� Ha! That�s the
> kind of doublespeak that would make George
> Orwell proud.
>
>
> Look. We�ve just seen the most
> massive real estate run-up in recent
> memory. We�ve got a market
> that�s grossly overbuilt and overpriced.
> We
> have millions of unsold homes all
> over the country.
>
>
> Result: We�re on the brink of a free
> fall. And it could take the price
> of your home along
> with it.
>
>
> From Dream Home
> to Financial
> Nightmare
>
>
> What�s
> next?
>
>
> Millions of American families, already
> stretched beyond their means to
> afford their dream homes, will snap
> beneath the burden of rising
> monthly payments.
>
>
> And we�re no longer the only ones
> warning you about this. Just this
> past Saturday, the lead article in the
> Wall Street Journal issued a
> very similar
> warning:
>
>
> Over $2 trillion in adjustable-rate
> mortgages (ARMs) are going to reset
> to higher rates this year
> and next.
>
>
> Already, a growing number of homebuyers are
> having a hard time making
> their monthly mortgage payments. And now,
> they�ll suddenly see their
> payments jump 30%, 40% even 50%. Past-due
> notices will start pouring
> into the nation�s mail stream
> � from hundreds of mortgage lenders and
> banks to hundreds of thousands
> of households.
>
>
> Suddenly, nearly everyone will be in a rush
> to put up their �for sale�
> sign before their neighbors
> do the same.
>
>
> A man�s home is his castle, but
> when it�s unsellable, it becomes a
> prison.
>
>
> Home foreclosures are already rising
> ominously. According to
> RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for
> foreclosure properties, about
> 103,540 properties nationwide entered some
> stage of foreclosure in
> January. That�s up 27% in a month ...
> 45% in a year, the biggest surge
> I�ve ever
> seen.
>
>
> Result: Still more pressure on the
> value of your property.
>
>
> Steps You Should
> Take Right Away
>
>
> I�ve just written a special report,
> �The Great Real Estate Bust of
> 2006-2008,� with detailed steps on
> what to do immediately. Here are
> seven to help get you
> started ...
>
>
> Step 1. Sell your investment real estate.
> Don�t wait. Don�t worry about
> replacing the income right now. Just move
> quickly to protect your
> capital. (More details on why, how and
> where in my report).
>
>
> Step 2. Think about your own home. If it
> means a lot more to you than
> just an investment, stick with it. If not,
> run the numbers on owning
> vs. renting. You�ll probably find
> that renting is cheaper even after
> you factor in the tax advantages of owning.
> By selling, you not only
> protect your nest-egg ... you also cut
> your monthly expenses.
>
>
> Step 3. If you absolutely must buy now for
> reasons that have nothing to
> do with the ups and downs in home prices, I
> understand. But don�t spend
> more than 25% of your gross income on
> principal, interest, taxes and
> insurance. And don�t miss the
> section in my report �10 Ways to Be a
> Smarter Home
> Buyer.�
>
>
> Step 4. If you�re holding mortgage
> bonds � from Fannie Mae, from
> Freddie Mac, or based on the high-risk
> �subprime� mortgages � sell
> now.
> The market value of these bonds is likely
> to fall as home prices
> decline and mortgage
> delinquencies rise.
>
>
> Step 5. From your stock portfolio, dump
> construction companies,
> subprime lenders and mortgage REITS. In my
> report, I discuss seven
> vulnerable sectors, and I name up to
> six stocks in each.
>
>
> Step 6. A housing bust can do more financial
> damage to more properties
> than any hurricane. You have insurance to
> protect your home against
> storm damage. So why don�t you buy
> some protection against a housing
> bust? In my report, I
> explain how.
>
>
> Step 7. Go for a profit bonanza! There are
> investments you can buy
> right now that are designed to double and
> triple in value as the real
> estate market
> crumbles.
>
>
> For example, you can buy long-term options,
> called LEAPS, on the two
> home builders named in my report. The more
> the stocks fall, the more
> money you stand to
> make.
>
>
> If you download my report now,
> you�ll be entitled to four follow-up
> reports. The entire package � my
> special report and the four follow-ups
> � is normally priced at $495. But
> right now, the complete package is
> $129.
>
>
> Your overarching goals: Avoid the
> avalanche of properties that�s
> starting to hit the market. Get out of
> debt. Grow your wealth. Build
> your cash. And stash it away in
> a safe place.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________________________________________
>
>
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