[RP TownTalk] U.S. Housing Bust!
Bruce Wernek
bruce.wernek at mindspring.com
Thu Mar 16 00:51:05 UTC 2006
Roland
Thanks Roland for your insights which make a lot of sense if we focus
strictly on the purpose of MUTC.
My basic premiss is that I would like to preserve the residential character
of some portion of our town. I don't care about the money or economic
development. What I care about is quality of life. That's what attracted
me and certainly others to our town. All of us are familiar with traffic
and congestion. I'm sure no one in their right mind wants more traffic and
congestion, but this apartment building is going increase traffic and
congestion. It's not just car traffic, but people traffic and all that goes
with it (crime, noise, nuisance, more dogs, less privacy, etc.) I also
wanted to point out the following, which some of you may not have
considered.
I figure it will take about two years to complete this apartment building
from start to finish. What this will entail is the complete demolition of
Dumm's Corner market, sub shop, rooming house across Riverdale Road, credit
union, and the storage areas behind and adjacent to Dumm's Corner market.
There will be a tremendous amount of excavation required to build the
underground parking lot. Almost the entire block from the credit union
south along Lafayette St crossing Riverdale Rd to the rooming house will
need to be excavated to a depth of around 20 feet. Then concrete will be
poured to create the underground parking lot and foundation for the
structure. This will be followed by construction of the apartment building,
which I'm assuming will be a brick or masonary structure requiring
considerable amounts of concrete and concrete forming.
What does this mean to us? Consider the following. Initially, heavy
equipment will be used for the demolition. Chances are bulldozers or large
backhows with a maw will be used. As the demolition proceeds large amounts
of silica dust created by the compaction of plaster, bricks, and concrete
will be wafted into the air as the buildings are being demolished and the
debris is being loaded on trucks. Depending on the wind, this dust will
settle on buildings, cars, and anything else within a 1 block radius minimum
(my opinion). This dust will be very fine and settle into gutters, around
car doors, on outdoor furniture, pass through window AC units, blow in
through open windows, etc. The dust granules are very hard (glass) so
simply wiping it off your car, furniture, etc. will create fine scratches in
the paint. It may clog cutters or effect the related water flow. Further,
this dust will be spread into other areas depending on the exit routes used
by the trucks containing the demolition debris. It will spread all over the
streets and sidewalks and need be be cleared away after the demolition. I
guesstimate that the demolition will take approximately 2 month from start
to finish and consist of about 200 truck loads of debris.
The next phase of the project will be the excavation of the parking garage.
This will require large backhoes to dig out the area outlined earlier and
load the dirt into trucks for removal. Again, large amounts of dust will be
wafted into the air creating the same problems outlined earlier. Riverdale
road will have to be closed for about a month or longer if there are delays
for that portion of the excavation. As the trucks leave town, the earth
dust will be spead along the exit routes in addition to clumps of dirt,
rocks, and other related debris settling/falling on the roads and sidewalks.
Again all of this dirt will need to be cleared from the roads and sidewalks
not to mention the houses, cars, gutters, etc. Say it will take 4 months
for the excavation to be completed.
Now comes the pour. Carpenters will form up the parking garage then
building structure in preparation for the concrete pour. There will be a
lot of plywood cutting and form building. Saw dust will probably settle on
the buildings directly adjacent to the project but it won't be as bad as the
silica or earth dust. Then the concrete trucks will start coming and
coming. Once the pour starts, it will probably continue non stop by section
since certain portions of the pour will need to be homogeneous. First the
parking garage will be completed and the pouring will continue floor by
floor until the basic structure is completed. The concrete work will
continue as the masonary facade is added to the building. I can't begin to
guess how many concrete trucks will be required to complete this project.
These trucks will be spreading concrete dust and chunks along the exit
routes from the town with the related inconvenience. Guess 9 months for
this to be completed.
The final phase of the project will be the finishing of the inside of the
building and will require numerous truckloads of materials, cranes for the
installation of the air handlers and roof structure, and any other special
equipment needed. Again the debris and trash resulting from the
construction will be spread around the town as it is being removed by the
trucks.
I engaged in this laborious description of the construction to make the
reader aware of the overall implication of this project. Many of our town
residents are going to have to endure the hardships outlined above for the
duration of this project not to mention the repeated street/sidewalk
cleaning which will be required. The other part of the story is the damage
to our town's roads. They are not designed for heavy truck traffic and will
be deeply furrowed and potholed from the countless truckloads of debris,
dirt, concrete, and trash. My outline of the hardships is in no way
comprehensive. It's just a first cut. I'm sure if the reader thought about
this for awhile, they would have something to add.
The bottom line is how does this benefit me as a resident of Riverdale. Am
I going to be happy cleaning silica dust, dirt, or concrete dust from my
porch, sidewalk, and driveway once a week for two years; having my gutters
cleaned three of four times a year; being afraid to open my windows for fear
that the dust will get into the house; washing/cleaning my car once a week;
driving my car up and down streets which have numerous potholes and furrows
from truck traffic covered with dirt and debris; having my tax dollars pay
for road repairs and cleaning; etc. Then after the project is finished, I
will have the benenfit of more people, cars, crime, noise, dogs, etc. a
block away not to mention the devaluation of my property. Am I expected to
endure all of this for the benefit of the Patriot Group? If this is the
meaning of economic development I want no part of it.
I took my best shot at guesstimating the time required to complete this
project and the steps involved. If any of you have anything to add, feel
free. Think about what I said. It's as close to reality as I can muster
and we are going to have to live with it if this project goes forward.
I would like to make a few corrections to my previous email (thanks Gerry
Kiernan). Airco should be spelled Erco. The Lustine property will be a mix
of condos and townhouses. I also referred to University Park as College
Park, which was incorrect. University Park is a separate municipality.
Bruce
-----Original Message-----
From: TownTalk-bounces at riverdale-park.org
[mailto:TownTalk-bounces at riverdale-park.org] On Behalf Of Roland Walker
Sent: Wednesday, March 15, 2006 4:28 PM
To: towntalk at riverdale-park.org
Subject: Re: [RP TownTalk] U.S. Housing Bust!
Dannielle, I appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts.
For those that don't realize it, Dannielle has made a career in the study of
infill development ("smart growth").
One thing we should all keep in mind when discussing the proposed
development at Dumm's Corner: the Mixed-Use Town Center zoning was designed
*specifically* to increase density in the MUTC area. This has nothing to do
with the momentary ups and downs of the housing market. The decision to
increase density was a long-term bet. It is our official plan, which has
been signed into law.
The consensus represented in the MUTC plan was formulated over years,
involved multiple mayoral administrations in consultation with county
planning professionals, and was open to participation by all citizens of
Riverdale Park. Many did participate, and I'm proud of what they produced.
Mr Wernek was one of the authors of the MUTC plan. I'm proud of him, too.
He wrote a great plan which was designed to encourage redevelopment at
Dumm's Corner and throughout our Town Center. Now, the plan is working!
This is what we asked for: we have developers with real resources knocking
at our door.
And they can build right away, thanks to the MUTC zoning. They can build up
to three stories of new condos at the Spiropolous properties.
It is emphatically not at issue whether or not the condos can be built. We
-- and by we I mean Mr Wernek and other good folks in the town -- have
already created all the needed zoning to enable condos there.
What is at issue is that the developer wants a variance to build more than
three stories. My personal opinion is that five stories is too big, and
that four stories would be a reasonable compromise.
R
PS Here's a link to the MUTC plan
http://www.mncppc.org/cpd/riverdaleplan.htm
Anyone can also get a copy of the book at Town Hall.
On 3/15/06, glaros at earthlink.net <glaros at earthlink.net> wrote:
> Hi.
>
> I really appreciate Bruce sharing the latest concerns on the national
> real estate market, but I think it is really important to be carefull
> to not overly generalize that market. From what I see across the
> country and here in the DC region, the places that will continue to
> grow and where real estate will continue to gain value or at least
> hold value (if the bubble bursts) are places accessible to public
> transportation. Not only that, but we have a "mega" employment center
> being built in our backyard--the m-square research park! Just
> yestedray, I mentioned to a very well-respected commerical real estate
> person that I can take the MARC into Union Station in 15min and be
> home in 10min. He starred at me in disbelief that places like US
> still exist. In other words, as homeowners we have made a wise
> investment in Riverdale Park.
>
> Riverdale Park is a great small town in a big city. As for me, I'd
> rather press the developers of Dumms to design the building exterior
> in a way that speaks to the charm of our great city. I'd like to see
> retail back in our town center and I strongly believe that to fill
> those vacant storefronts, we need more people living close to our town
> center.
>
> See you at the next MUTC meeting!
> Dannielle Glaros
> 4800 Sheridan St
>
> -----Original Message-----
> >From: Andrew Farrington <somefool at dvnt.com>
> >Sent: Mar 15, 2006 10:51 AM
> >To: "Regina M. Kreger" <regina at kreger.net>
> >Cc: towntalk at riverdale-park.org
> >Subject: Re: [RP TownTalk] U.S. Housing Bust!
> >
> >I suggest you sell all of your properties, and rent until the sky has
> >fallen. Also, please send me $130 for more information. A $500
> >value! Thanks. :)
> >
> >Andrew Farrington
> >
> >On Wed, 15 Mar 2006, Regina M. Kreger wrote:
> >
> >> Jeez, Andrew. So what -- you think the way the housing market has
> >> behaved over the last few years is rational and sustainable?? I
> >> think Bruce is bringing up an extremely important point, and I
> >> share his doubts over the viability of the Dumms condo proposal.
> >> It is only one of several doubts I have about the proposal, but
> >> it's one of the most serious ones.
> >>
> >> Regina Kreger
> >> 5903 Cleveland Ave.
> >>
> >> Andrew Farrington wrote:
> >> Did you really just forward fear-mongering commercial email
> >> to the town talk list? "Be terrified! Give me $130 bucks
> >> or you'll DIE!! Booga booga!" Just curious: Did you send
> >> the guy $130?
> >>
> >> Andrew Farrington
> >>
> >> On Tue, 14 Mar 2006 bruce.wernek at mindspring.com wrote:
> >>
> >> All,
> >>
> >> This is a financial news letter I receive daily
> >> from Weiss Research. Since there is a proposal
> >> on the table for a "condominum" complex at
> >> Dumms Corner, I thought the following would be
> >> interesting reading. I
> >> fear this "condominum" complex will either be
> >> just another vacant
> >> property in our Town Center or an apartment
> >> building, most likely the
> >> later. I don't consider this economic
> >> development, but you can make
> >> your own decisions.
> >>
> >> Bruce
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> To make sure you don't miss our urgent
> >> updates, add Weiss Research to
> >> your address book. Just follow
> >> these simple steps.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> Money and Markets Tuesday,
> >> March 14, 2006
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> ? U.S. Housing Bust
> >> by Michael Larson
> >> ? Asian Tech Boom
> >> by Tony Sagami
> >>
> >>
> >> Dear Stanley
> >> Bruce,
> >>
> >>
> >> [larson.jpg] Tony Sagami?s so
> >> worried about what?s happening to U.S.
> >> tech stocks, he?s hopped on a plane
> >> and flown off to Asia. He?ll give
> >> you a sneak preview of his research
> >> tour in just a moment.
> >>
> >>
> >> But first, Martin has asked me to give you
> >> an urgent update on what?s
> >> happening in the U.S.
> >> housing market.
> >>
> >>
> >> If you?re like most of my friends and
> >> family, your home is your biggest
> >> and best investment. It?s worth more
> >> than any single stock or mutual
> >> fund in your portfolio ? perhaps
> >> more than all your other investments
> >> combined. But right
> >> now ...
> >>
> >>
> >> Home Prices
> >> Are Falling!
> >>
> >>
> >> In Bethesda, Maryland, prices have
> >> tumbled 16% from December to
> >> January.
> >>
> >>
> >> In a key area of Fresno, California, the
> >> median sale price for homes
> >> was $439,000. But in just the last 60 days,
> >> those homes have plummeted
> >> $51,000, to
> >> $388,000.
> >>
> >>
> >> In San Diego, new home prices have just
> >> suffered the sharpest
> >> month-to-month dive ever
> >> recorded.
> >>
> >>
> >> [img1.jpg] In Palm Beach County, Florida,
> >> where we live, we see the
> >> same thing. Every day, when we drive to
> >> work, we see ?house for sale?
> >> signs sprouting like unwanted weeds along
> >> the road. And every night, as
> >> we drive home, our eyes turn to a skyline
> >> sculpted by dozens of new
> >> high-rise condominiums, nearly all in
> >> darkness, nearly all unoccupied.
> >>
> >>
> >> And this is just a small sampling. I can
> >> give you a dozen more examples
> >> ? from Sarasota ... Chicago ...
> >> Phoenix ... Washington D.C. and more
> >> that show this ?adjustment?
> >> in prices could be sharp, severe and
> >> widespread.
> >>
> >>
> >> This Housing Bubble is
> >> Busting.
> >> And the Bust Could
> >> Spread from
> >> Coast to Coast Like a
> >> Giant Storm.
> >>
> >>
> >> It may have reached your area already. Or
> >> it may be on its way. In
> >> either case, my question for you today is:
> >> Are you planning to just
> >> ride it out? Or are you going to do
> >> something about it?
> >>
> >>
> >> Suppose your home falls 30% in value. What
> >> about 40% or 50%? Given how
> >> fast and far home values have surged,
> >> that would not be unusual.
> >>
> >>
> >> Heck, even if the price of your home falls
> >> by a ?mild? 10%, that could
> >> be a huge hit to your net
> >> worth.
> >>
> >>
> >> Let?s say, for example, your home is
> >> worth $500,000, and you?ve got a
> >> $450,000 mortgage. Guess what: Just a 10%
> >> decline wipes out 100% of
> >> your equity. Even if you?ve got
> >> another $50,000 in the bank, that still
> >> means that half of your net worth
> >> has gone up in smoke.
> >>
> >>
> >> I?m writing you now because you
> >> don?t have to ride it out. You
> >> don?t
> >> have to sit there passively while a housing
> >> bust wipes out much or most
> >> of your net worth. Indeed, there?s a
> >> lot you can do to protect yourself
> >> ? even to go after
> >> unusually large profits.
> >>
> >>
> >> And it does not require
> >> selling your home.
> >>
> >>
> >> The Biggest Glut
> >> of
> >> Unsold Homes of All
> >> Time
> >>
> >>
> >> All across the USA, brand new,
> >> single-family homes are begging for
> >> buyers.
> >>
> >>
> >> And empty condos are about as popular as
> >> lepers at a kissing contest.
> >>
> >>
> >> Here?s
> >> why ...
> >>
> >>
> >> 1. Home sales are
> >> dropping.
> >>
> >>
> >> The sales of existing homes are at their
> >> lowest level in nearly two
> >> years ... and sinking fast. That means if
> >> you want to try selling your
> >> home right now, it?s probably going
> >> to take a heck of a lot longer to
> >> move it. And more and more people are
> >> putting their homes up for sale.
> >>
> >>
> >> The same is happening in the new home
> >> market, where sales just plunged
> >> to a one-year low. But builders are
> >> committed to past contracts. So
> >> they?re still building record
> >> numbers of shiny new homes.
> >>
> >>
> >> As a result ...
> >>
> >>
> >> [img2.jpg] 2. The supply of homes on the
> >> market is ballooning out of
> >> control!
> >>
> >>
> >> The number of new homes for sale just hit
> >> 528,000 in January. That was
> >> the worst at any time in
> >> U.S. history.
> >>
> >>
> >> At the same time, in the used home market, a
> >> whopping 2.9 million units
> >> have flooded the market. That?s
> >> just shy of an 18-year high.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> 3. Condos are getting hit the
> >> hardest of all.
> >>
> >>
> >> Nationwide, condo and co-op sales have
> >> plunged 7.8% over the last 12
> >> months. And supplies surged by 49.5%! If
> >> you own a condo, good luck
> >> selling! And even if you don?t own
> >> one, the drop in condo prices will
> >> naturally put pressure on your properties
> >> as home buyers choose the
> >> cheaper
> >> alternatives.
> >>
> >>
> >> These warning signs would be troubling for
> >> any market. Yet the real
> >> estate lobby keeps whistling past
> >> the graveyard.
> >>
> >>
> >> Just yesterday, the National Association of
> >> Realtors published its 2006
> >> sales outlook, forecasting sales declines
> >> of almost 6% for existing
> >> homes and 8% for new homes, the biggest
> >> drops since the 1990s.
> >>
> >>
> >> But their headline is pure spin:
> >> ?Housing Market Readjusting to Normal
> >> Balance.? Ha! That?s the
> >> kind of doublespeak that would make George
> >> Orwell proud.
> >>
> >>
> >> Look. We?ve just seen the most
> >> massive real estate run-up in recent
> >> memory. We?ve got a market
> >> that?s grossly overbuilt and overpriced.
> >> We
> >> have millions of unsold homes all
> >> over the country.
> >>
> >>
> >> Result: We?re on the brink of a free
> >> fall. And it could take the price
> >> of your home along
> >> with it.
> >>
> >>
> >> From Dream Home
> >> to Financial
> >> Nightmare
> >>
> >>
> >> What?s
> >> next?
> >>
> >>
> >> Millions of American families, already
> >> stretched beyond their means to
> >> afford their dream homes, will snap
> >> beneath the burden of rising
> >> monthly payments.
> >>
> >>
> >> And we?re no longer the only ones
> >> warning you about this. Just this
> >> past Saturday, the lead article in the
> >> Wall Street Journal issued a
> >> very similar
> >> warning:
> >>
> >>
> >> Over $2 trillion in adjustable-rate
> >> mortgages (ARMs) are going to reset
> >> to higher rates this year
> >> and next.
> >>
> >>
> >> Already, a growing number of homebuyers are
> >> having a hard time making
> >> their monthly mortgage payments. And now,
> >> they?ll suddenly see their
> >> payments jump 30%, 40% even 50%. Past-due
> >> notices will start pouring
> >> into the nation?s mail stream
> >> ? from hundreds of mortgage lenders and
> >> banks to hundreds of thousands
> >> of households.
> >>
> >>
> >> Suddenly, nearly everyone will be in a rush
> >> to put up their ?for sale?
> >> sign before their neighbors
> >> do the same.
> >>
> >>
> >> A man?s home is his castle, but
> >> when it?s unsellable, it becomes a
> >> prison.
> >>
> >>
> >> Home foreclosures are already rising
> >> ominously. According to
> >> RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for
> >> foreclosure properties, about
> >> 103,540 properties nationwide entered some
> >> stage of foreclosure in
> >> January. That?s up 27% in a month ...
> >> 45% in a year, the biggest surge
> >> I?ve ever
> >> seen.
> >>
> >>
> >> Result: Still more pressure on the
> >> value of your property.
> >>
> >>
> >> Steps You Should
> >> Take Right Away
> >>
> >>
> >> I?ve just written a special report,
> >> ?The Great Real Estate Bust of
> >> 2006-2008,? with detailed steps on
> >> what to do immediately. Here are
> >> seven to help get you
> >> started ...
> >>
> >>
> >> Step 1. Sell your investment real estate.
> >> Don?t wait. Don?t worry about
> >> replacing the income right now. Just move
> >> quickly to protect your
> >> capital. (More details on why, how and
> >> where in my report).
> >>
> >>
> >> Step 2. Think about your own home. If it
> >> means a lot more to you than
> >> just an investment, stick with it. If not,
> >> run the numbers on owning
> >> vs. renting. You?ll probably find
> >> that renting is cheaper even after
> >> you factor in the tax advantages of owning.
> >> By selling, you not only
> >> protect your nest-egg ... you also cut
> >> your monthly expenses.
> >>
> >>
> >> Step 3. If you absolutely must buy now for
> >> reasons that have nothing to
> >> do with the ups and downs in home prices, I
> >> understand. But don?t spend
> >> more than 25% of your gross income on
> >> principal, interest, taxes and
> >> insurance. And don?t miss the
> >> section in my report ?10 Ways to Be a
> >> Smarter Home
> >> Buyer.?
> >>
> >>
> >> Step 4. If you?re holding mortgage
> >> bonds ? from Fannie Mae, from
> >> Freddie Mac, or based on the high-risk
> >> ?subprime? mortgages ? sell
> >> now.
> >> The market value of these bonds is likely
> >> to fall as home prices
> >> decline and mortgage
> >> delinquencies rise.
> >>
> >>
> >> Step 5. From your stock portfolio, dump
> >> construction companies,
> >> subprime lenders and mortgage REITS. In my
> >> report, I discuss seven
> >> vulnerable sectors, and I name up to
> >> six stocks in each.
> >>
> >>
> >> Step 6. A housing bust can do more financial
> >> damage to more properties
> >> than any hurricane. You have insurance to
> >> protect your home against
> >> storm damage. So why don?t you buy
> >> some protection against a housing
> >> bust? In my report, I
> >> explain how.
> >>
> >>
> >> Step 7. Go for a profit bonanza! There are
> >> investments you can buy
> >> right now that are designed to double and
> >> triple in value as the real
> >> estate market
> >> crumbles.
> >>
> >>
> >> For example, you can buy long-term options,
> >> called LEAPS, on the two
> >> home builders named in my report. The more
> >> the stocks fall, the more
> >> money you stand to
> >> make.
> >>
> >>
> >> If you download my report now,
> >> you?ll be entitled to four follow-up
> >> reports. The entire package ? my
> >> special report and the four follow-ups
> >> ? is normally priced at $495. But
> >> right now, the complete package is
> >> $129.
> >>
> >>
> >> Your overarching goals: Avoid the
> >> avalanche of properties that?s
> >> starting to hit the market. Get out of
> >> debt. Grow your wealth. Build
> >> your cash. And stash it away in
> >> a safe place.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> ___________________________________________________________________
> >> ____________
> >>
> >>
> >> For more information and
> >> archived issues, visit
> >>
> >> http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.
> >>
> >>
> >> About MONEY AND
> >> MARKETS
> >>
> >>
> >> MONEY AND MARKETS (MAM) is published by
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> >> written by Martin D. Weiss along with Larry
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> >> other contributors. To avoid conflicts of
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