[RP TownTalk] Solar photovoltaics - paradigm shift?

[Rob Oppenheim]

Electricity generated from solar panels (aka photovoltaics, or PV) may
be about to go thru one of those rare order-of-magnitude paradigm shifts. 
 
A new production technology is now coming on line that makes PV
cheaper by a power of 10 - as low as 30 cents a watt, which makes it
cheaper than coal. If this turns out to be for real, it changes everything.
 
If you are thinking about buying PV solar panels, you would do well to 
consider the impact of this potential paradigm shift. 

Several companies are working on this new technology, and 2 companies
are building large scale production plants that are nearly complete.
"Although the underlying thin-film technology has been around for years, 
Nanosolar has created the actual technology to manufacture and mass 
produce the solar sheets."
 
"In San Jose, Nanosolar has built what will soon be the world’s
largest solar-panel manufacturing facility. CEO Martin Roscheisen
claims that once full production starts early next year [2008], it will
create 430 megawatts’ worth of solar cells a year—more than the
combined total of every other solar plant in the U.S." 
 
"This isn't about expensive, slow-to-build silicon panels. Nanosolar
has created a new, patented, spray-on film that can be printed on a
flexible foil material, and then rolled out on any surface." ... "The
company produces its PowerSheet solar cells with printing-press-style
machines that set down a layer of solar-absorbing nano-ink onto thin
aluminum foil, so the panels can be made for about a tenth of what
current panels cost and at a rate of several hundred feet per minute."
 
All of Nanosolar's production for the next year is already sold out. 
They plan on selling large amounts to utility companies to 
generate electricity wholesale. The first 100,000 cells will be shipped 
to Europe, where a consortium will be building a 1.4-megawatt power 
plant next year. 
 
Now this could still fail, but it looks very real. They claim to have
prototypes of large scale production techniques running now and
their full scale plant online soon.
 
Still, it will likely take a few years before this becomes widely available 
(unless some of the other companies that are also working on similar 
solutions get up to speed soon). 
 
Brian's link to the environmental impacts of PV is for silicon based PV. 
One manufacturer says that thin-film "is greener than silicon solar [using] 
50 percent less energy to manufacture, start to finish, than conventional 
silicon crystal solar cells."
 
There are other companies claiming PV breakthroughs too. Hopefully 
one or more will turn out to be for real. We may see the day where a huge
amount of our electric power is PV. Of course, it still won't work at night 
and work poorly on heavily overcast days, so some other source of energy 
will still be needed - or a world-wide electric network will have to be built.
 
There are Nanosolar skeptics - who point out things like:
Will they be able to get enough raw materials? 
The company had a recent high level shake up (the head researcher 
was forced out). Is this a good or bad omen? 
Another company also thought they had thin-film production 
problems solved, but they were wrong, and they took a 90 million 
dollar write off.
 
Nanosolar won Popular Science's Innovation of the Year award and
much of the above text is from their write up at:
http://www.popsci.com/popsci/flat/bown/2007/green/item_59.html
 
Perhaps the best write up is at: http://tinyurl.com/2v2ptc
- Here is the full link...
http://www.celsias.com/2007/11/23/nanosolars-breakthrough-technology-solar-now-cheaper-than-coal/
Its title: "Nanosolar's Breakthrough -  Solar Now Cheaper than Coal" 
and explains how Nanosolar trumps the many problems that plagued 
thin-film technology in the past.
 
The companies web site is www.nanosolar.com
(It is privately held, so you can't buy stock in it).
 
Some other companies/technologies claiming PV breakthroughs include:
Honda begins thin-film solar production: http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/26285
Miasole thin film: http://www.miasole.com/ 
Organic thin film: http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/21429
Plastic solar cells: http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/23655
Power Plastic (R) http://www.konarka.com/ 
String Ribbon wafer  http://www.evergreensolar.com/app/en/home/
(There are others too).
 
-Rob
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