[RP TownTalk] code and vendors discussion

[Alan Thompson and Sarah Wayland]

Lou,

I read both of these and found the Washington Post one revealing but  
sad, but found the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice  (CJCJ)  
report unsatisfying -- they really didn't explain *what* San  
Francisco was doing that worked.  Then I looked at the years in which  
crime rates fell, and a little light bulb went off over my head:  
economics.

To quote a study out of Ohio State University (OSU) (http:// 
researchnews.osu.edu/archive/crimwage.htm):

"National crime rates rose from 1979 to 1992, when wages for less  
skilled men were falling. Crime declined from 1993 to 1997. This  
decline in crime corresponded to a leveling off and slight increase  
in the wages of unskilled workers across the nation in that period,  
Weinberg said."

The years of the CJCJ study were roughly 1990 to 1998, and as all  
good geeks know the internet boom was fueling San Francisco's economy  
to white-hot during that time.  I would bet that the ease of getting  
a good job during that time in San Francisco could completely explain  
why a lot of crime rates fell.  While there are ways to answer subtle  
questions like this ("Was it crime enforcement policy or labor  
markets that had more effect on crime reduction in the time range  
1992-1998?") there may not be good enough data to use those techniques.

Contrary to my point, the OSU study shows only a weak correlation  
between wages/unemployment and violent crimes such as murder and  
rape, while the CJCJ study did see declines in those crimes in San  
Francisco.  I would expect a long-term reduction in violent crime  
with improved economic conditions, but not a short-term one (and I  
don't know what "long-term" is).

Regards,

	Alan

On Nov 2, 2007, at 2:35 PM, Lou King wrote:

> Not to start a flurry of competing studies, but there are  
> alternative approaches that also work. For example: From the Center  
> on Juvenile and Criminal Justice  http://www.cjcj.org/pubs/windows/ 
> windows.html
>
> The conclusion in the Executive Summary states:
>
> "The study shows that strict law enforcement approaches emphasizing  
> arrests, prosecutions, convictions, and incarceration do not reduce  
> crime rates. By following an opposite approach to cities such as  
> New York, San Francisco achieved dramatic reductions in crime that  
> exceeded most other national cities while decreasing arrest rates  
> and reducing prison commitments by 67%. Based on this study, a  
> reexamination of popular assumptions about crime and crime control  
> are necessary."
>
> More recently there is the Washington Post column http:// 
> www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46381-2005Jan29.html  "A  
> Crack in the Broken-Windows Theory."
>
> This all begs the question, 'instead of what?'  I seem to remember  
> that the folks north of 410 and west of the tracks feel that 'no  
> one ever comes over here (unless they want our vote)!'  Which other  
> part of town should be added to the list?  I can't remember his  
> name but there was a resident at the meeting last Monday (and will  
> be there on the 5th) who wants to have a protest demonstration in  
> front of the 7-11 on Kenilworth to dissuade the people hanging  
> around, "hassling people and dealing drugs".
>
> Its all a matter of priorities.
>
> Lou
>
> Roland Walker wrote:
>> [lou writes]
>>> Are you suggesting we put "roses" above other priorities? Or are  
>>> you suggesting we raise taxes for the express purpose of  
>>> eliminating roses from our town? Lets take a vote on that. In a  
>>> zero sum game if one thing wins something loses. What do you  
>>> suggest?
>> http://www.manhattan-institute.org/pdf/_atlantic_monthly- 
>> broken_windows.pdf R
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