[RP TownTalk] Why there is time...Re: TownTalk Digest, Vol 10, Issue 59

[Jack Randall Jones]

Lines left out of "Buckaroo Banzai and the Eighth Dimension"
Q. Why is there time?
A. So every thing can not happen at once!

Chris makes some good practical sense, this is advice that I have 
found in every, management, operations, or maintenance text...things 
will absolutely go wrong so spread the risk.

The ancient Romans were quite good city builders, they could put up a 
50k population city and have everyone moved in, in little over a 
year. The planners knew about economy of scale and redundancy...they 
chose the stability of redundancy over economy of scale which meant 
that they put in 4 or 5 bread ovens instead of one eventhough that 
was less efficient. They did this with all the manufactories and 
other city functions.

When I moved in town in the mid 1970's...I noticed that every tree 
being planed was a Bradford Pear. I went to Town Hall to warn the 
then current administration that the program of planting all one kind 
of tree was going to end in a big mess. They laughed at me..."what do 
you know about beautification"..."everything has a weakness, I do not 
know what the problem is. Whatever the problem with a Bradford Pear, 
it is going to hit all at the same time."

Also from my days as a WWTP Superintendent Class A, I learned the 
above principle applies in an abundance of areas. In fact contrary to 
intuition, for a system to operate at optimum performance...some of 
the subsystems may have to operate at varying degrees of 
inefficiency. I.e. because a good deal can be gotten on asphalt and 
concrete does not mean the whole operation of Riverdale Park is going 
to see that benefit, as it can easily produce a diseconomy else where.

Riverdale Park has borrowed money at a good time, the interest rate 
is very low compared to the last 20-30 years. There is time and it is 
good that every thing can not happen at once. It would be a 
reasonable thing to preserve the time frame of scheduled repair and 
keep it around a 5 to 10 year cycle.

New Carollton recently had a study done to get the OPTIMAL mix of 
road repair methods and repair cycle...perhaps before doing the 
action packed every thing at once, it might be good to look at the 
optimal economics of it.

Take your time,
Jack

>
>Message: 9
>Date: Thu, 24 May 2007 20:17:54 -0400
>From: "CHRISTINA DAVIS" <book-smart at verizon.net>
>Subject: Re: [RP TownTalk] no vote will be taken at the budget hearing
>To: "'Maureen Farrington'" <maureen.farrington at gmail.com>,
>	"'TownTalk'" <towntalk at riverdale-park.org>
>Message-ID: <007901c79e62$242f4610$020aa8c0 at naw.org>
>Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
>
>My predecessor explained it to me this way when I was itching to repave all
>of the ward at once:
>
>Paying for a house all at once will save you money in interest paid.
>However, few people can afford to do so, and those who can are often
>reluctant to sink so much money into one investment, especially when they
>have other rising expenses, like home repairs, utilities, car payments,
>education loans and savings, taxes, and food. Or, sinking it all into one
>type of  infrastructure, when you have other capital improvements, salaries
>and benefits, insurance, fuel, utilities, tree and park planting and
>maintenance, and equipment purchase and maintenance, which are perpetually
>rising costs and for which you may need the money.
>
>Sure, you can save on asphalt and concrete costs, which we also did by
>borrowing $500K on several occasions and paying it back in 5 years, keeping
>the tax hit low while slowly moving toward completion of the town (or paying
>off the mortgage).
>
>But, in the long run, the entire street inventory is scheduled to fail again
>at the same time, running up a somewhat untenable bill for the townspeople
>and business owners 20-30 years from now. Which is what that aforementioned
>former mayor did; he certainly was popular among his mid-century
>constituents, but not with the children of those constituents, who were
>left, in essence, with a big chunk of his bill.
>
>Chris Davis
>